2024-2026
How the new geopolitics influence 5G and 6G
5G and 6G technologies are not only essential for promoting Europe’s digital transformation, but are also linked to economic growth, strategic autonomy and security. The rapidly evolving geopolitical and technological landscape is reshaping the global mobile industry.
The “Mobile is Global” research project (MiG) examines how geopolitical changes will affect the development and deployment of 5G and 6G technologies. The project focuses especially on Finland’s role and the promotion of strategic autonomy, resilience, and flexibility in this area. The project not only evaluates new geopolitical realities, but also offers solutions to reduce uncertainty and provide clear guidelines for both Finnish decision-makers and industry.
This two-year project is funded by Business Finland and implemented in cooperation between CKIR and ETLA Economic Research.
MiG reports
This report examines the global race for 5G and 6G leadership through a comparative analysis of regulation, R&D investment, patenting, and the rollout of next-generation networks and services across Europe, the United States, and Asia.
(in Finnish) This report examines, how the focus in the next generation mobile communication systems has shifted from infrastructure to data, software and innovation ecosystems.
This report describes the Finnish national interests in the context of 5G. It derives a framework for analysing geopolitically motivated internal and external threats and security issues. The authors also discuss the broader context of future of mobile communications and delve into its technical and regulatory aspects.
MiG scenarios
During the spring of 2025 CKIR facilitated the creation of a set of scenarios with the title “5G/6G Worldmap 2030“.
These scenarios describe four possible futures that are driven by ongoing and future changes. They are stories, not predictions, and probabilities should not be calculated for their realisation. The stories take place in April-May 2030 and are based on the choices made by the centres of the geopolitical blocs, i.e. the United States, China and the EU, and their consequences. Russia also plays a significant role in these stories.
”New Threat Awaits” depicts a future in which Europe is technologically alert and in a strong position, but the world is on the brink of war.
”Europe’s Prometheus”, on the other hand, tells of a future in which Europe is ”doing well”: it has made the right decisions, its technological position is strong, and the world’s conflicts seem to be settling down for the best.
”Frog in a Pot” is a story about a future in which Europe has become a prisoner of its old way of working and is therefore lagging other blocs.
”From bad to worse” describes a situation in which Europe, in a technologically weak position, must respond alone to concrete threats coming from Russia.
Each scenario story is accompanied by market reviews that illustrate the direction and relative changes in the 5G/6G industry: an assessment of the mobile network business (2024-2034) and an assessment of changes in user numbers across different mobile generations (2022-2034). These assessments are based on publicly available market forecasts and reports.
“A truly insightful and deeply engaging work, combining imagination with thorough analysis in an easy-to-read format. The scenario stories give a deep understanding of how technological sovereignty issues, geopolitics, and innovation intertwine. The inclusion of market forecasts, likely winners and losers, and early indicators makes it not only visionary but also practical.”
Read the full testimonial from Dr. Kent Thorén, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
Below, you can download the MiG scenario book in English and Finnish and explore the scenario work led by CKIR’s Mobile Is Global project team.